Market wait - and - see sentiment again, research shows that the textile industry season may be the end
In October, China cotton textile boom index 53.58, the industry boom continued to improve.In terms of raw materials, cotton and non-cotton prices rose sharply this month. In order to control the cost and the risk of raw material price fluctuations, the spinning enterprises mostly used with the purchase, and non-cotton fiber purchase quantity and inventory increased month-on-month.Production, sales and storage links, orders increased significantly this month, most of the spinning enterprises at full capacity production, products with production with sales, finished product inventory at a low level.From the point of view of products, yarn sales hot, production increased substantially;Grey cloth does not produce and sell as hot as yarn.In terms of price, the price of yarn and cloth increased with the rigidity of raw material price this month, but the grey cloth increased less than that of yarn, so the profit space of fabric enterprises was compressed.
In order to fully understand the current operation situation of the cotton textile market across the country and the future forecast of enterprises, China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Cotton Industry Association) timely tracks the operation situation by communicating information with the cotton textile and upstream and downstream enterprises.According to the survey results, the interviewed enterprises all indicated that the market picked up significantly in early October, the orders increased significantly this month, and gradually returned to calm at the end of the month, with product inventory at a low level.Although the profit level compared with the same period last year, there is still a large gap, but the sequential improvement.Some fabric enterprises said, if there is no early low yarn inventory, grey fabric profit level less than last month.For aftermarket, most of the spinning enterprises said that the current international economic situation is still more uncertain factors, superimposing traditional low season, cautious attitude to aftermarket.
This month, staple futures were officially listed in zheng Shang Exchange.Polyester staple fiber, the subject of staple fiber futures, is one of the main raw materials to ensure the development of China's textile industry and is listed as the three major raw materials of cotton textile industry together with cotton and viscose staple fiber.Staple futures rose by the daily trading limit on the first day of trading, then rose by the daily trading limit for four times in six consecutive trading days.The price then began a sharp correction, and fell on the 22 th limit.At the initial stage of the market, staple fiber futures rose mainly due to the peak season of the industry, and the market concentrated replenishment. As the market production and sales cooled down, the disk began to recover too fast growth.
In terms of imports and exports, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's foreign trade in October reached 2.84 trillion yuan, up 4.6 percent, registering a positive growth for the fifth consecutive month.Of this, exports totaled 1.62 trillion yuan, up 7.6%.Among them, the amount of textile exports increased by 11.0% year on year.The continuation of export growth is still determined by the overseas economic repair process.At present, the economic data of major overseas economies have improved, the demand for overseas imports has increased, and China's exports have continued to expand.From the perspective of textile and clothing, as some countries and regions were affected by the second outbreak of the epidemic, decided to seal the country and city, the Christmas season consumption is expected to shrink, this news hit the confidence of downstream goods preparation, textile and clothing orders fell significantly.In addition, the month of epidemic prevention supplies to exports continue to pull back.
Raw Material Purchasing Index
In October, the raw materials purchasing index was 55.85.This month, cotton prices at home and abroad are rising after the trend of decline, the price of the overall center of gravity.Considering the risk brought by the fluctuation of cotton price, the spinning enterprises cautiously replenished cotton.At the beginning of this month, domestic cotton spot and zheng Cotton futures rose sharply, mainly due to the post-harvest cotton gin seed cotton continuously pushed up the raw cotton price.In addition, October is the traditional textile peak season, in the short term downstream demand growth has also pulled cotton prices.In late October, the market gradually returned to calm, demand fell, cotton prices have fallen.Foreign cotton, this month, the Cotlook A index rose after the shock fell slightly, up less than domestic cotton prices.Chemical fiber staple, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber price trend and cotton price trend is basically the same, the price change is mainly affected by the change in the market supply and demand pattern.Polyester staple fiber futures have risen sharply since the listing, boosting the spot price. Later, with the weak crude oil price fluctuation in mid-to-late October and the saturation of the demand end, the price has entered the downward channel.
Specific data, this month domestic 3128 grade cotton average price 14,699 yuan/ton, up 1869 yuan/ton month-on-month;The CotlookA index averaged 75.95 cents a pound, up 5.14 cents a pound.The average price of mainstream viscose fiber is 10314 yuan/ton, up 1470 yuan/ton from the previous month;The average price of D direct polyester polyester short yarn is 5808 yuan/ton, rising 373 yuan/ton month-on-month.
Raw material inventory index
In October, raw material inventory index 50.42, raw material inventory in the textile enterprises at a reasonable level.At the beginning of the month, the market atmosphere is hot, raw material prices all the way soaring, the spinning enterprise comprehensive consideration of capital pressure and raw material price changes brought by the risk, still to buy at the same time.As the market gradually cooled down, production and sales slowed down, raw material inventory increased.According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, the proportion of enterprises whose cotton inventory rose month-on-month in October was 33.94%, and that which fell month-on-month was 36.94%.The proportion of enterprises whose non-cotton fiber inventory increased month-on-month was 38.91%, and that whose inventory decreased month-on-month was 27.42%.Compared with September, cotton fiber inventory decreased month-on-month, while non-cotton fiber inventory increased.
The production index,
In October, the production index was 53.96, and the opening probability and output increased month-on-month.This month, the spinning enterprise opened the probability of further improvement, yarn production increased significantly month-on-month, cloth output is basically flat.According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, the enterprises with higher opening probability accounted for 20.76 percentage points higher than last month, the enterprises with higher yarn output accounted for 5.49 percentage points higher than last month, and the enterprises with higher cloth output accounted for 0.43 percentage points lower than last month.In the early part of mid-October, the market turned around rapidly, the demand for products exceeded the supply, and the spinning enterprises accelerated the pace of production. Later, with the influence of factors such as saturation of downstream procurement and the decline of cotton price, the wait-and-see mood of the market resumed, and the production pace of the spinning enterprises slowed down.Some of the spinning enterprises said that due to the recent substantial increase in the opening rate, labor is more tight.
Product sales index
In October, the product sales index was 56.86, and the market atmosphere was very hot.This month the downstream procurement active, yarn, grey cloth products sales smooth.From the perspective of varieties, the conventional varieties of yarn has been relatively popular, the sales of high-count pure cotton yarn has also improved;Grey cloth market is inferior to yarn market.Because October "double 11", "12-12" more orders, thick variety of cloth sales situation is good.Some foreign trade enterprises said that orders in Europe and the United States have not yet picked up, and orders in Southeast Asia and Japan and South Korea have increased significantly, but due to the impact of substantial fluctuations in raw material prices and the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, spinning enterprises are more cautious in accepting orders.The spinning enterprises said that the hot market in October for spinning enterprises to win to breathe time, but this wave of market persistence is weak, is expected to later may still be a small single, the resistance to pick up again in the year is large.
Product inventory index
In October, the product inventory index 55.4, the stock of the spinning enterprises decreased significantly month-on-month.There are two main reasons for the low level of product inventory this month: first, since September, product sales have been relatively smooth and destocking has been effective; second, the market recovery momentum was good in October, with sufficient orders and smooth flow of goods, and the stockpiling inventory was basically cleared.Spinning enterprises said, early October production and sales smooth, product inventory declined substantially.Since the second half of the year, downstream follow-up orders are weak, the market wait-and-see attitude again, product inventory began to climb, but the overall level is still at a low level.According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, 72.79% of enterprises had yarn inventory decrease month-on-month, and 66.07% of enterprises had cloth inventory decrease month-on-month.
In October, the enterprise operating index 52.63, the operating income of the spinning enterprises increased significantly, the profit level improved slightly.According to the survey results of China Cotton Industry Association, 68.83% of the surveyed enterprises indicated that their main business income increased month-on-month, with enterprises accounting for an increase of 15.29 percentage points compared with the previous month.42.02% of the surveyed companies said their profits had increased, accounting for an increase of 5.64 percentage points compared with the previous month.The spinning enterprises said that the month cotton price shock amplitude more violent impact on the spinning enterprises to receive orders.Orders using pre-stock cotton have a part of the profit, and new orders will be adjusted according to the current cotton price, but the market acceptance is general, which indirectly affects the downstream purchasing enthusiasm.
Business Confidence Index
In October, the business confidence index was 49.7, which is expected to turn light in the afternoon.This month, the downstream market demand continued to increase substantially, the production pace of the spinning enterprises accelerated, cash flow improved significantly, the market recovery eased the pressure of the spinning enterprises.For aftermarket, textile enterprises generally believe that since late October, downstream orders have decreased significantly, the peak season is the end of the industry.The end of this year is the seasonal low season, coupled with the uncertainty of the US sanctions on Xinjiang cotton, the repeated situation of the epidemic abroad, the resistance to the improvement of the international economy and other factors interweave, it is expected that the market will weaken in the later period.