Market wait-and-see sentiment again, research shows that the textile industry peak season or is the end
In October, China's cotton textile climate index 53.58, industry climate continued to improve.In terms of raw materials, cotton and non-cotton prices have risen sharply this month. In order to control the risk of cost and raw material price fluctuation, spinning enterprises are buying and using more, and non-cotton fiber purchases and inventories have increased from month to month.Production, sales and storage, orders increased significantly this month, most of the spinning enterprises at full capacity production, products with production and sales, finished product inventory at a low level.Product point of view, yarn sales hot, production increased substantially;Grey cloth production and marketing heat is not as good as yarn.Price aspect, this month yarn, cloth price rises with raw material price rigidity, but grey cloth with increase degree is less than yarn, fabric enterprise profit space is compressed.
In order to fully understand the current operation situation of the cotton textile market in all parts of the country and the future market forecast of enterprises, China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Cotton Trade Association) timely tracks the operation situation by communicating information with the cotton textile and upstream and downstream enterprises in all parts of the country.From the survey results, the interviewed enterprises all said that the market picked up significantly in mid-early October, orders increased significantly this month, and gradually returned to calm at the end of the month, and product inventory was at a low level.Although the profit level compared with the same period last year, there is still a large gap, but gradually improve.Fabric enterprises said, such as no early low-cost yarn inventory, grey cloth profit level is less than last month.For aftermarket, most of the spinning enterprises said that the current international economic situation is still more uncertain factors, superimposed on the traditional off-season, the aftermarket cautious wait-and-see attitude.
This month, short - fiber futures in the formal listing trading.The staple fiber futures subject matter polyester staple fiber, together with cotton, viscose staple fiber as the three major raw materials in the cotton textile industry, is one of the main raw materials to ensure the development of China's textile industry.Short fiber futures open on the first day of a number of contracts collective trading limit, since the consecutive six trading days up, and there are four trading limit.Prices then began a sharp correction, and on the 22 th of the limit.At the beginning of the listing, the spike in short fiber futures mainly coincided with the peak season of the industry, and the market concentrated replenishment of stocks. With the cooling of market production and sales, the plate began to recover too fast.
In terms of import and export, China's foreign trade increased by 4.6% to 2.84 trillion yuan in October, the fifth consecutive month of positive growth, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs.Exports accounted for 1.62 trillion yuan, up 7.6%.The export value of textiles increased by 11.0% year on year.Export trend continued growth is still determined by the overseas economic repair process.At present, the economic data of major overseas economies have improved, overseas import demand has expanded, and China's exports have continued to expand.From the perspective of textiles and clothing, because some countries and regions affected by the second outbreak of the epidemic, decided to close the country, closed the city, the Christmas season consumption is expected to shrink, this news hit the confidence of the downstream stock, textile and clothing orders dropped sharply.In addition, that month anti - epidemic supplies continue to pull down to export.
Raw material purchasing index
In October, the raw material purchasing index stood at 55.85.This month, domestic and foreign cotton prices are rising after falling trend, the overall price center of gravity upward.Taking into account the risk of cotton price fluctuations, textile companies carefully replenish cotton.At the beginning of the month, the domestic cotton spot and Zheng cotton futures rose sharply, mainly due to the harvest of seed cotton after the holiday gin continued to push up the price of cotton.In addition, October is the traditional textile peak season, short - term demand growth has also driven the downstream cotton prices.In late October, the market gradually returned to calm, demand fell, cotton prices fell.Cotton, this month Cotlook A index shock rose after A small fall, the increase is less than domestic cotton prices.Chemical staple fiber, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber price trend and cotton price trend is basically the same this month, price changes are mainly affected by market supply and demand pattern changes.Among them, polyester staple fiber futures since the listing of a large rise in the spot price, and then with the weak crude oil price shock in the middle and late October and the demand end tends to saturate, the price into a downward channel.
Specific data, this month domestic 3128 grade cotton average price of 14,699 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,869 yuan/ton;The Cotlooka index averaged 75.95 cents a pound, up 5.14 cents a pound;The average price of mainstream viscose fiber is 10,314 yuan/ton, up 1470 yuan/ton;The average price of 1.4d direct spinning polyester short is RMB5808 / ton, up RMB373 / ton from the previous month.
Raw material inventory index
In October, the raw material inventory index was 50.42, indicating that the raw material inventory of textile enterprises was at a reasonable level.At the beginning of the month, the market atmosphere is hot, and the price of raw materials is soaring all the way. Considering the risk brought by the financial pressure and the change of raw material price, the textile enterprises still focus on buying and using.As the market gradually cooled, the pace of production and marketing slowed down, the inventory of raw materials increased.According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, enterprises with a month-on-month increase in cotton inventory in October accounted for 33.94%, while enterprises with a month-on-month decline accounted for 36.94%.Enterprises with a month-on-month increase in non-cotton fiber inventory accounted for 38.91%, while those with a month-on-month decrease accounted for 27.42%.Compared with September, cotton fiber inventory decreased, non-cotton fiber inventory increased.
The production index,
In October, the production index was 53.96, indicating a month-on-month increase in opening rate and output.This month, spinning enterprises to open the chance to further improve, yarn production significantly increased, cloth production basically flat.According to the cotton industry association survey, opened the probability of the enterprise rose last month compared with 20.76 percentage points, yarn production rose last month compared with the enterprise 5.49 percentage points, cloth production rose compared with the enterprise slightly decreased 0.43 percentage points.In the middle and early October, the market improved rapidly, and the supply of products fell short of the demand, so the spinning enterprises accelerated the production pace. Later, with the influence of downstream procurement saturation and cotton price decline linked with yarn price, the market wait-and-see sentiment returned, and the production pace of the spinning enterprises slowed down.Some textile enterprises said that due to the recent increase in the opening rate, labor is relatively tight.
Product sales index
In October, product sales index 56.86, the market atmosphere is very hot.Downstream procurement positive this month, yarn, grey cloth product sales smooth.In terms of varieties, conventional yarns have been selling well, and the sales of high-count pure cotton yarns have also improved.The grey cloth market is inferior to the yarn market.Because October "double eleven", "12-12" the order is more, thick breed cloth sells a situation better.Some foreign trade enterprises said that the current orders in Europe and the United States still did not see improvement, Southeast Asia and Japan and South Korea orders increased significantly, but affected by the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices and the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, textile enterprises to receive orders more cautious.Textile enterprises said that in October the market hot for textile enterprises to win to breathe time, but this wave of market persistence is weak, is expected to be still in the late stage of the small single, the resistance to pick up again in the year is large.
Product inventory index
In October, the product inventory index was 55.4, and the inventory of textile enterprises was significantly lower than that of the previous month.There are two main reasons for the low product inventory in this month: first, product sales have been smooth since September, and destocking has been effective; second, the market has recovered well in October, with sufficient orders and smooth shipment, and the stock hoarded has been basically cleared out.Textile companies said production and sales were smooth in mid-early October, with a sharp drop in product inventories.From the middle to the second half of the year, the downstream follow-up orders are weak, the market wait-and-see attitude again, product inventory began to climb, but the overall level is still at a low level.According to the survey of China Cotton Industry Association, yarn inventory of enterprises accounted for 72.79% of the decline, cloth inventory of enterprises accounted for 66.07% of the decline, textile inventory significantly decreased compared with last month.
In October, the enterprise operating index was 52.63, the operating income of the textile enterprises increased significantly, and the profit level improved slightly.According to the survey results of China Cotton Industry Association, 68.83% of the surveyed enterprises said their main business income increased from the previous month, and the proportion of enterprises increased by 15.29 percentage points compared with the previous month.42.02 percent of the surveyed enterprises said their profits increased, and the proportion of enterprises increased by 5.64 percentage points compared with the previous month.Textile enterprises said that month cotton price shock range is more intense on the textile enterprises receiving orders.The use of pre-stock cotton orders have some profits, new orders will be adjusted according to the current cotton price as appropriate, but the market acceptance is general, indirect impact on the downstream procurement enthusiasm.
Business confidence index
Business sentiment was 49.7 in October and is expected to slow in the afternoon.This month, the downstream market demand continues to increase significantly, the pace of production of spinning enterprises is accelerated, the cash flow is obviously better, the market recovery has eased the operating pressure of spinning enterprises.For the aftermarket, textile enterprises generally believe that since late October, the downstream orders significantly reduced, the industry peak season is at an end.The end of the year is the seasonal slack season, coupled with the United States sanctions on Xinjiang cotton is still uncertain, foreign epidemic situation, international economic recovery resistance and other factors intertwined, the market is expected to weaken in the late probability.