Reda futures: PTA sharp drop back to focus on processing changes

Disk situation: TA2105 contract close 3682, compared with the previous trading day -1.50%;Trading volume was 2035501 lots, holding position was 2494823 lots;Basis - 212.

Information: 1. Sichuan can invest 1 million tons/year PTA plant to gradually increase the load, and the current load is 80%.

2. Yishanda Huali's 3.75m tons/year PTA device has been resumed operation, and the device entered maintenance in early November.

Upstream raw materials: The closing price of PX in Asia on August 8 was us $587.58 / ton CFR China and US $569.58 / ton FOB South Korea, down US $6.75 / ton from the previous working day.Yesterday the MX price was $511 / ton CFR Taiwan, down $7 / ton;Naphtha was $429.5 / ton CFR Japan, up $6.50 / ton.

Spot price: PTA spot market east China region quotation 3470, the previous transaction -25

Warehouse receipt inventory: The registered warehouse receipt of PTA of Zheng Shangsuo is 286644, compared with the last trading day +4898, and the effective forecast is 34,944.

Main positions: The top 20 positions of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange show that the PTA2105 contract buys 1284178 lots, +26070 lots, sell orders 1682634 lots, +3726 lots.

Conclusion: At the supply end of PTA, reagin petrochemical reduced load by 50%, and the overall load of domestic PTA plant decreased to 90.59%.In terms of downstream demand, the polyester integrated starting load is stable at 88.69%, and the domestic weaving load is stable at 77.41%. The shopping festival processing orders are gradually completed, and the subsequent orders are weak, and the weaving start is down.At the end of the year, Baihong unit is planned to put into production, and the supply side pressure is large.Terminal yarn factory raw material inventory is high, short fiber filament follow-up purchase enthusiasm may be weakened.PX quotation fell slightly, processing is currently 590 yuan/ton.Social inventory exceeded 4 million tons, supply pressure is large, it is recommended to meet the short.

Technically, the PTA2105 contract is short term, the upper test is 3730 pressure, and the operation is short term, the short-range short air target is 3520, and the second-line target is 3460.

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